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Variance

The statistical spread of your poker results around your expected win rate.

What is Variance in poker?

VarianceThe statistical spread of your poker results around your expected win rate. Variance is the statistical spread of your poker results around your expected (long-term) win rate. Even a strong winning player will experience long stretches of losses purely from variance. Variance is normal, expected, and the reason bankroll management matters. Standard deviation, the square root of variance, is the practical metric used in calculations — typical values are 80–110 BB/100 for NLHE cash and 130–170 for PLO.

Formula

Standard deviation (SD) is reported per 100 hands. Variance = SD². For total result over N hands, expected SD scales with sqrt(N/100).

Example

A 5 BB/100 winner with SD = 100 will see 95% of 50,000-hand samples produce results between roughly −38 and +88 BB total (in big blinds). The 5 BB/100 expectation is 25 BB; the variance band is ±63 BB. Long stretches of breakeven or losses are entirely normal.

How StackEdge uses Variance

StackEdge tracks Variance automatically from your session log and surfaces it across the analytics dashboard, alongside related metrics — broken down by game type, venue, stakes, day of week, and time of day. See the full analytics suite →

Related terms

  • Risk of RuinThe probability you go broke given your win rate, variance, and bankroll.
  • Sample SizeNumber of hands or tournaments — determines how reliable your win rate is.
  • Win RateLong-term profit rate, in BB/100 for cash or ROI for tournaments.
  • BankrollThe total amount of money set aside specifically for playing poker.
Variance (Poker Glossary) — Definition + Formula | StackEdge